| Week | Date | Result | Opponent | Score | ELO Before | ELO Change | ELO After | Win Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Aug 28 2025 | L | Wisconsin | 0-17 | 1583.9 | -45.3 | 1538.6 | 61.0% |
| 3 | Sep 6 2025 | L | Rutgers | 17-45 | 1538.6 | -30.1 | 1508.5 | 43.0% |
| 5 | Sep 20 2025 | L | UNLV | 38-41 | 1508.5 | -28.3 | 1480.2 | 26.7% |
| 6 | Sep 27 2025 | W | Lindenwood | 38-0 | 1480.2 | +0.0 | 1480.2 | 47.2% |
| 7 | Oct 4 2025 | W | Northern Illinois | 25-14 | 1480.2 | +29.5 | 1509.7 | 72.1% |
| 8 | Oct 11 2025 | W | Akron | 20-7 | 1509.7 | +13.3 | 1523.0 | 88.1% |
| 9 | Oct 18 2025 | W | Eastern Michigan | 44-30 | 1523.0 | +10.7 | 1533.7 | 83.5% |
| 10 | Oct 25 2025 | W | Western Michigan | 26-17 | 1533.7 | +18.3 | 1552.0 | 72.6% |
| 12 | Nov 4 2025 | L | Ohio | 20-24 | 1552.0 | -32.0 | 1520.0 | 45.4% |
| 13 | Nov 12 2025 | L | Toledo | 3-24 | 1520.0 | -65.1 | 1454.9 | 70.4% |
| 14 | Nov 19 2025 | W | Buffalo | 37-20 | 1454.9 | +33.2 | 1488.1 | 68.2% |
| 15 | Nov 29 2025 | W | Ball State | 45-24 | 1488.1 | +8.9 | 1497.0 | 86.2% |
| 16 | Dec 6 2025 | L | Western Michigan | 13-23 | 1497.0 | -41.8 | 1455.2 | 49.2% |
| 19 | Dec 27 2025 | L | Fresno State | 3-18 | 1455.2 | -42.7 | 1412.5 | 50.2% |